蒋小芳

Abstract: A quantity-space coupling model can effectively simulate the number of land-use patches and their rapid spatial changes. Thus, this model has become the main method of land use research in recent years. This research first compared the simulated land-use structure of the patch-generating land-use simulation model (PLUS), future land-use simulation model (FLUS), and conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) in the Gan-Lin-Gao region (Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County of Zhangye City) of the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in 2015. In addition, this research selected the suitable spatial simulation model for the study area; then, it was coupled with the system dynamics model (SD) to form a quantitative-spatial coupling model. Finally, the coupling model was used to predict the land-use structure of the economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and harmonious development (HD) scenarios, and comparative evaluation was conducted. The research results showed that (1) at the same pixel scale, the figure of merit of the PLUS model was higher than that of the FLUS and CLUE-S models, and the Kno and Klocation of the three models were PLUS, CLUE-S, and FLUS from high to low, indicating that the PLUS model had the best spatial fitting effect in this study area. (2) Moreover, the different scenarios predicted by the PLUS- SD coupling model showed that the construction land and arable land in the ED scenario expanded rapidly, but the forest coverage rate was low. Furthermore, the forest coverage rate in the EP scenario increased significantly, but the level of ED was low, and the urbanization in the HD scenario improved when the ecological environment was gradually developing. This research determined the significant advantages of the PLUS- SD coupling model and highlighted the effective land-use spatial simulation capabilities of the PLUS model and powerful data processing capabilities of the SD model. The results can provide reference for the formulation of land planning policies.