Subjects: Geosciences >> Cartography submitted time 2023-03-13 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： Carrying out the optimal allocation of land use is aimed at promoting the scientific use of regional land resources and achieving carbon emission reduction targets. In this paper, the Fenhe River Basin is taken as the research area. Based on the data on land use and resistance factors in 2015 and 2020, the FLUS-MCR model and the carbon budget coefficient method are used to verify the accuracy of the model. Five simulation scenarios, such as low- carbon development priority, economic development priority, cultivated land protection priority, ecological protection priority, and natural development in 2030, are set up to compare the layout characteristics of land use types under different scenarios in the future, and an optimized layout scheme is proposed. The results showed that: (1) In 2020, the areas of four land use functional zoning of the prohibited, restricted, key, and optimized development zones in Fenhe River Basin were 2491.76 km2, 6445.99 km2, 16325 km2, and 14477 km2, respectively. The net carbon emission of the basin is 2002.46 × 104 t. The prohibited development zone is the carbon sink area of the basin, and the total carbon absorption is 0.76×104 t. The remaining three areas are carbon source areas, and the total carbon emission is 2003.22 × 104 t. (2) In 2030, the carbon balance of land use in each scenario from high to low is low- carbon development priority, ecological protection priority, cultivated land protection priority, natural development priority, and economic development priority. (3) In 2030, under different scenarios, in addition to the relatively reasonable land use structure of the prohibited development zone, the restricted development zone still needs to appropriately reduce the proportion of cultivated land and construction land in the area. To support the coordinated development of land use, production, living conditions, and ecological functions and to accomplish low-carbon land use goals, the key and optimal development zones should take arable grassland development into consideration.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2021-08-12 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：选取汾河流域为研究区，基于2015年、2018年土地利用类型数据，并采用EES模型筛选了对应基准年的20项驱动因子数据，利用FLUS模型，在验证模型精度有效性的基础上，模拟预测了2024年、2030年生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及三生空间协调4种情景下汾河流域生态空间的时空演化特征及成因。结果表明：（1）2018—2030年汾河流域生态空间呈现两类演变趋势，在生态空间优先、三生空间协调情景下呈现线性增长，分别增长5.92%、5.13%；生产空间优先、生活空间优先情景下呈现线性下降，分别下降9.40%、2.20%；生产、生活、生态空间用地结构比例维持4:1:5。（2）时空格局上，生态空间位于流域边缘山区，生产、生活空间位于核心盆地，生态、生产、生活空间整体呈现依次嵌套的格局特征；生态空间核心区变化幅度较小，边缘区变化显著。（3）2024年、2030年三生空间协调情景、生态空间优先情景下生态空间的演变趋势近似，受流域自然-社会发展趋势及国家政策影响，未来可利用后备土地资源有限，流域生态空间变化较小但也存在胁迫隐患。基于此，本文建议严格遵循“三线”（永久基本农田保护红线、生态保护红线、城镇开发边界线）基本原则，合理规划三生空间后备土地资源，对生态空间边缘区（生态敏感区）积极治理保育，核心区限制开发，促进流域科学发展。
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