Projecting future precipitation change across the semi-arid Borana lowland, southern Ethiopia

分类： 地球科学 >> 地理学 提交时间： 2023-10-17 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

Mitiku A WORKU Gudina L FEYISA Kassahun T BEKETIE Emmanuel GARBOLINO

摘要： Climate change caused by past, current, and future greenhouse gas emissions has become a major concern for scientists in the field in many countries and regions of the world. This study modelled future precipitation change by downscaling a set of large-scale climate predictor variables (predictors) from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the semi-arid Borana lowland, southern Ethiopia. The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) 4.2.9 was employed to downscale and project future precipitation change in the middle (20362065; 2050s) and far (20662095; 2080s) future at the local scale. Historical precipitation observations from eight meteorological stations stretching from 1981 to 1995 and 1996 to 2005 were used for the model calibration and validation, respectively, and the time period of 19812018 was considered and used as the baseline period to analyze future precipitation change. The results revealed that the surface-specific humidity and the geopotential height at 500 hPa were the preferred large-scale predictors. Compared to the middle future (2050s), precipitation showed a much greater increase in the far future (2080s) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios at all meteorological stations (except Teletele and Dillo stations). At Teltele station, the projected annual precipitation will decrease by 26.53% (2050s) and 39.45% (2080s) under RCP4.5 scenario, and 34.99% (2050s) and 60.62% (2080s) under RCP8.5 scenario. Seasonally, the main rainy period would shift from spring (March to May) to autumn (September to November) at Dehas, Dire, Moyale, and Teltele stations, but for Arero and Yabelo stations, spring would consistently receive more precipitation than autumn. It can be concluded that future precipitation in the semi-arid Borana lowland is predicted to differ under the two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), showing an increasing trend at most meteorological stations. This information could be helpful for policymakers to design adaptation plans in water resources management, and we suggest that the government should give more attention to improve early warning systems in drought-prone areas by providing dependable climate forecast information as early as possible.

 点击量 661  下载量 147  评论