Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-05-30 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： This study was conducted to reveal the impact and mechanism of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with Ningxia precipitation and to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction ability in Ningxia. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia, NCEP/NCAR atmospheric data, Hadley center sea surface temperature data, and utilizing empirical orthogonal decomposition, composite, and correlation methods, we studied the relationships and their decadal changes between the North Atlantic SSTA and Ningxia precipitation anomaly from late spring to early summer (April- June). It was found that the relationship had continuously increased since 1961 but nonsignificantly until the 1980s. Since then, the North Atlantic Ocean“triple type”(NAT) SSTA in early winter and spring has caused precipitation anomalies in Ningxia from April to June but it differs each month. Corresponding to the positive (negative) phase NAT, Ningxia precipitation is more (less) in April, less(more) in May, and less northerly and more southerly (more northerly and less southerly) in June. Furthermore, the mechanism is revealed of NAT affecting Ningxia precipitation anomaly by inducing an atmosphere anomaly wave train in the area from Europe to the Asia-Pacific. The positivephase NAT can induce a wave train with atmosphere circulation anomaly pattern of geopotential height“west lower and east higher”at 500 hPa around Ningxia in April, which is the typical atmosphere anomaly pattern of more precipitation in Ningxia in April. Additionally, at the low layer of 850 hPa, the southerly wind anomalies transform warmer and humid air into Ningxia, contributing to more precipitation. In May and June, with the transition from spring to summer, the abnormal wave train polar shifts. In May, Ningxia is affected by the positive abnormal height field at 500 hPa in Baikal Lake area to East Asia, and the abnormal wind field in the low level of 850 hPa divergence, with less precipitation. In June, the positive height anomaly center at 500 hPa in East Asia continues to develop northward from south to north to Baikal Lake area, and splits from the positive anomaly height in the east of China into two anomaly centers. At 500 hPa, Ningxia north and south areas are affected by the atmospheric circulation pattern of geopotential height anomaly being“north higher and south lower”and“west lower and east higher”, respectively. Meanwhile, at low level 850 hPa weak northerly and southerly anomaly wind prevails in the north and south area of Ningxia respectively, being with divergence and convergence. All of these atmosphere anomalies are conducive to less precipitation in the north and more in the south of Ningxia. For negative NAT phase, all the atmospheric circulation and precipipation anomalies are vice versa.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-05-30 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： The dominant sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) modes of decadal and interannual variations in summer precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China (ENC) were here analyzed by power spectrum and composite analyses. The summer precipitation averaged at 155 stations over the ENC, the monthly SSTa, and circulation reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020 were used. The SSTa predictors before and after the timescale decomposition were obtained to establish precipitation prediction models by using linear regression. The results showed that the summer precipitation over the ENC has not only an decadal period of about 30 years but also a 3-year interannual cycle. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (IPO) has played a leading role in decadal variations in summer precipitation. The positive phase of IPO in the precedent spring is conducive to more precipitation; meanwhile, it is in the background of less precipitation . The tropical Indian Ocean, the tropical western Pacific, and the North Atlantic provide interannual SSTa signals. The negative (positive) phase of tropical Indian Ocean SSTa, the positive (negative) phase of the Atlantic tripole SSTa, and the cold (warm) SSTa in the tropical western
Pacific Ocean in the precedent spring, corresponding to the high (low) pressure anomalies over Lake Balkhash in mid- to high latitudes, with northward (southward) and weak (strong) characteristics in the subtropical High over the Western Pacific, favor less (more) summer precipitation over the ENC. Moreover, taking the decadal and interannual variations of SSTa into account can potentially contribute to improving forecasting of summer precipitation over the ENC, with the annual average Ps and Pc scores during the independent test samples based on the scale decomposition model being 6% and 7% higher than those in the original model, respectively.
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