基于用地竞争力的新疆潜在土地利用冲突识别及其影响因素 postprint

Abstract: Accurately identifying potential land-use conflicts and clarifying their multiscale spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors hold significant practical implications for optimizing territorial spatial patterns and achieving sustainable regional development.Using the Xinjiang as a case study,this study adopts a land-use competitiveness perspective and uses a multicriteria evaluation method to develop models for the competitiveness of ecological,agricultural,and construction land.This approach optimizes the method for identifying potential land-use conflicts,yielding 4 conflict-intensity levels and 12 conflict types.The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and scale effects of potential land-use conflicts in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2023 were compre hensively and systematically examined across three scales—grid (micro),county (local),and municipal (macro)— and the aggregation characteristics and influencing factors of potential conflicts were investigated.The results re veal that (1)from 2000 to 2023,the overall competitiveness of construction land in Xinjiang increased significantly,agricultural land competitiveness strengthened,and ecological land competitiveness improved slightly.(2)The patterns of potential land-use conflicts exhibited certain similarities and differences across the grid,county,and municipal scales.(3)Overall,potential land-use conflicts in Xinjiang intensified.Conflicts between agricultural and ecological uses have been alleviated to some extent.In contrast,conflicts between construction and agricul tural uses have intensified,and conflicts involving construction,agriculture,and ecology simultaneously have worsened.(4)Potential land-use conflicts in Xinjiang exhibited significant spatial aggregation effects,demonstrating a pattern of“high in oases,low in deserts,and nonsignificant in mountains.”Hotspot areas of conflict showed a trend shifting from“high-density concentration”to“dispersed diffusion.”(5)Potential land-use conflicts in Xinjiang resulted from the combined effects of the natural environment and socioeconomic factors, among which land-use intensity and distance to roads significantly influenced potential conflicts.Synergistic in teractions among the influencing factors were observed,and the combination of natural and socioeconomic factors enhanced the explanatory power regarding potential conflicts.The findings provide a scientific basis for differentiated spatial governance in Xinjiang,ranging from municipal-level strategic coordination and county-level policy adaptation to grid-based,precise remediation to optimize the territorial spatial pattern in arid regions.