天山北坡城市群生态系统服务价值及生态补偿策略 postprint

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, ecological and environmental pressures are intensifying, making the coordination between economic development and ecological conservation a critical issue for regional sustainability. As a key ecological security barrier and economic growth corridor in Northwest China, the ecological condition of the urban agglomeration in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is of great significance for regional sustainable development. Existing studies have primarily focused on ecological value accounting in agro-pastoral transition zones, while research at the scale of oasis-based urban agglomerations in arid regions remains limited, particularly in capturing the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation. To address this gap, this study integrates agricultural production statistics with actual regional vegetation characteristics to revise ecosystem service value (ESV) equivalent factors. net primary productivity (NPP) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are further incorporated for secondary refinement. Based on these improvements, priority areas for ecological compensation are identified. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive land-use dynamics in the study area exhibited an overall declining trend from 2000 to 2020, characterized by reductions in bare land and grassland, alongside increases in other land-use types. (2) the ecosystem service value of the urban agglomeration in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains demonstrated a general upward trend over the past 20 years, with an average value of 1176×108 yuan, and high-value areas mainly concentrated in high-altitude forest regions. (3) areas with higher priority for ecological compensation are primarily located in Dabancheng District, Mulei Kazakh Autonomous County, and Urumqi County. These findings provide a scientific basis for delineating priority ecological compensation zones and promoting the coordinated advancement of ecological conservation and highquality development in the urban agglomeration in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.