Evaluation of long-term climate dynamic variations across Uzbekistan using multi-sourced datasets 后印本

摘要: Uzbekistan is a core country of the Silk Road Economic Belt; thus, its long-term climate variations play key roles in achieving the objectives set by Sustainable Development Goal 13 (SDG-13) to address climate change and its impacts. This study utilized temperature and precipitation data from 32 meteorological stations across Uzbekistan (1950–2023), Climatic Research Unit Time-Series (CRU-TS) version 4.08 (1901–2023), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) (1950–2022), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2) (1980–2024) to thoroughly investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Uzbekistan from 1901 to 2024. The Distance between Indices of Simulation and Observation (DISO) metric was employed to evaluate the accuracy of the gridded datasets, and the Mann–Kendall method was implemented to analyze the linear trends of temperature and precipitation. Results indicated that ERA5 temperature data are the most consistent with the observed temperature data, whereas CRU-TS data perform best in determining long-term precipitation variability. The century-scale trend represented by the CRU-TS data showed significant warming at a rate of nearly 0.17°C/10a, exceeding the Northern Hemisphere average. Uzbekistan showed no clear upward trend in precipitation during 1901–2023. Rapid warming and heightened interannual precipitation variability were observed in ERA5 (1950–2022) and MERRA2 (1980–2024) over their respective coverage periods. CRU-TS, ERA5, and MERRA2 data all revealed a shift of the warming center from the Aral Sea Basin into the central and southeastern regions of Uzbekistan. Nevertheless, the Aral Sea Basin remained in the core warming zone, with CRU-TS data indicating a centennial warming rate of 0.16°C/10a–0.20°C/10a. The precipitation patterns revealed a complex "wetter southeast and drier central–west" and "wetter summer and drier autumn–winter" dichotomy. These findings could enhance the understanding of long-term climate change in Uzbekistan and provide a scientific foundation for implementing SDG-13 to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the region.