Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-08-26 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： Analyzing the response of tree radial growth to climate change is crucial for accurately predicting thedynamic changes in forests in the future. The temperate coniferous forest, dominated by Picea schrenkiana, iswidely distributed in the mid-mountain zone on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. In this study, coresamples of high-altitude Picea schrenkiana were collected, and the response characteristics of Picea schrenkianaradial growth to climatic factors and drought events were explored using tree-ring analysis. The results showedthe following: (1) From 1960 to 2020, the tree- ring width index of Picea schrenkiana showed a significantupward trend without any growth recession, indicating favorable growth conditions in recent years. (2) The treeringwidth of Picea schrenkiana was mainly positively correlated with temperature from June to August,precipitation in April, and scPDSI in all months except July. Sliding correlation analysis showed an unstablerelationship between tree-ring width and climatic factors. After 1991, the positive response of spruce to climatic factorswas further strengthened. (3) The percentage of radial growth change in Picea schrenkiana was less than −25% from1879 to 1880, indicating a growth decline from 1879 to 1885. An increase in drought frequency and intensityresulted in a decrease in the resistance and resilience of Picea schrenkiana to drought events. When Piceaschrenkiana was in a relatively sufficient water environment for a long time and suffered from sudden droughtevents, it exhibited a significant decline in resistance and was prone to growth decline. In summary, under theinfluence of climate change, warming is still expected to promote the radial growth of high- altitude Piceaschrenkiana in the region in the near future. However, the increase in the frequency and intensity of droughtevents during the warming process will further reduce the resistance and resilience of Picea schrenkiana, posingan increased risk of growth decline. In the near future, Picea schrenkiana will face the challenge of balancinggrowth promotion due to warming and growth inhibition due to drought. Further observation and research arerequired to understand the ultimate impact. In the future, various methods should be implemented to closelymonitor the growth dynamics of Picea schrenkiana.
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