Subjects: Geosciences >> Hydrology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： Water shortage has become a major resource and environmental challenge worldwide. Climate and land use change have made the evolution of current hydrological factors complex and uncertain. Exploring the spatial distribution characteristics of hydrological factors under dynamic scenarios is of vital theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of regional economy and society. The meteorological and hydrological data of the Datong River source region from 1960 to 2019 were used in this study to quantitatively analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of hydrological elements under climate and land use change scenarios based on model simulation and scenario segmentation. The results showed that: (1) After calibration and verification of the SWAT model, the coefficient of determination, Nash coefficient, and percentage bias (PBIAS) all met the model requirements of 0.81%, 0.79%, and −0.8% in the rate period, and 0.81%, 0.75%, and 15.8% in the validation period, respectively, which indicated that the model had good applicability in the headwaters of the Chase River. (2) Obvious spatial heterogeneity of hydrological elements was detected in the headwater area of Datong River, and a single hydrological element could not represent the overall spatial distribution. Precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and soil water content decreased with the increase in altitude, while surface runoff and water yield increased with the increase in altitude. (3) The spatial distribution of hydrological factors under the three scenarios were generally consistent, while the spatial distribution of water yield was greatly affected by the land use change. Under the climate change scenario, the actual evapotranspiration and soil water content showed a downward trend, while the surface runoff and water yield showed an upward trend. Under the land use change scenario, the changes of hydrological elements were contrary to these observations.
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