Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-05-30 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： It is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the influence of various atmospheric environmental parameters on short-duration rainstorm forecasts in the Hedong region of Gansu Province in order to improve the short- duration rainstorm forecast equation and accuracy. Based on precipitation data from the flood season of 2013 to 2018 in the Hedong region of Gansu Province, using the percentile method, the threshold of shortduration rainstorms from June to August in Hedong was calculated. Ninety-two cases of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province were selected based on the threshold of time- to- storm rain. Using ECMWF 0.25°×0.25° reanalysis data to analyze the atmospheric environmental parameters, it was found that the K index, relative humidity of 700 hPa, the atmospheric precipitable amount, and other parameters are good indicators of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province. Based on the method of fuzzy mathematics, considering the significance and moderation, a comprehensive evaluation plan for 28 atmospheric environmental parameters was constructed, and the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters in different periods were obtained. The analysis shows that, when short-duration rainstorms occur in the flood season in the Hedong region of Gansu Province, the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters differ in different
periods. When forecasting a short-duration rainstorm, the weight of atmospheric environmental parameters in the
period in which it is located should be considered, and the parameters with the highest weight ranking should
mainly be considered.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Other Disciplines of Geosciences submitted time 2019-09-11 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract：我国西北地区经济发展、居民生活水平和碳排放均低于全国平均水平，随着国家政策倾斜，居民生活条件逐步改善，居民生活碳排放量提升空间较大，排放格局将受影响，这对西北地区本就脆弱的生态环境更加不利。目前有关居民碳排放的研究多集中在人类活动频繁、碳排放量大的我国东、南部地区，较少关注西北地区，但碳排放增加、环境成本加重对于欠发达地区的影响更加深远。其次，研究者关注居民碳排放预测时，通常着眼于数量预测，忽视了空间格局预测，不利于区域间协同发展。基于1997—2016年西北五省居民能源消耗和消费支出数据，首先利用直接系数法和投入产出法测算了1997—2016年西北地区居民生活碳排放，对其现状进行分析；第二，基于标准差椭圆和ARIMA模型从数量和空间格局上对2017—2021年西北居民生活碳排放进行预测。结果表明：1997—2016年，西北居民生活碳排放呈先缓慢后快速的上升趋势。直接碳排放稳定在0.3～0.4×108 t；间接碳排放达到2.38×108 t；空间分布总体稳定，呈西北—东南分布，移动趋势为西北—东南—西北，标准差椭圆中心在（99.07°E,38.19°N）附近移动。2017—2021年，直接碳排放达到0.543×108 t；间接碳排放为3.631×108 t；主体区域沿X轴发散，Y轴收敛，旋转轴变化小，随着西部大开发和脱贫的推进，新疆排放量次于陕西，增速较快，推动碳排放主体区域向西北移动。旨在为实现西北地区人口、消费、环境协调发展、引导居民树立低碳消费的价值理念建言献策。
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