基于PLUS和InVEST模型的乌鲁木齐市碳储量时空演变与预测

Abstract: Land use changes have an important impact on carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, and studying carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems under different development scenarios is conducive to the optimization of spatial layout and coordination of the relationship between land use and ecological environmental protection. In this study, the PLUS and InVEST models were combined, and the characteristics of land use changes in Urumqi from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed using data from multiple drivers to predict and simulate the land carbon stock under the natural development scenario, ecological protection priority scenario, and cropland protection priority scenario in 2030. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, the quantity of forest land, water area, construction area, and unused land increases, whereas the area of arable land and grassland decreases. In 2030, the natural development scenario continues the previous development pattern, and the increase in the area of construction land is 18.29%. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, the expansion rate of construction land is effectively controlled, and the increase has slowed down to 4.73%. The area of arable land under the priority arable land protection scenario is 171 km2 more than under the natural development scenario, and the effect of cultivated land conservation is significant. From 2000 to 2020, and carbon stocks decrease by a total of 8.5×106 t. The total carbon stock in 2030 under the natural growth scenario decreases by 4.065×106 t compared to 2020. the ecological protection priority scenario is 7.519×105 t higher than the natural growth scenario. the cropland protection priority scenario is 1.979×106 t lower than the natural growth scenario.Therefore, in the future development plan of Urumqi City, the responsibility of protecting arable land should be implemented, and the expansion of construction land to high-carbon-density land such as forest land, grassland, and arable land should be controlled. Furthermore, the land use layout should be optimized to improve the level of regional carbon stock.