摘要: Arid mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive to hydrothermal stress and land use intensification, yet where net primary productivity (NPP) degradation is likely to persist and what drives it remain unclear in the Tianshan Mountains of Northwest China. We integrated multi-source remote sensing with the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate NPP during 2000–2020, assessed trend persistence using the Hurst exponent, and identified key drivers and nonlinear thresholds with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Total NPP averaged 55.74 Tg C/a and ranged from 48.07 to 65.91 Tg C/a from 2000 to 2020, while regional mean NPP rose from 138.97 to 160.69 g C/(m2•a). Land use transfer analysis showed that grassland expanded mainly at the expense of unutilized land and that cropland increased overall. Although NPP increased across 64.11% of the region during 2000–2020, persistence analysis suggested that 53.93% of the Tianshan Mountains was prone to continued NPP decline, including 36.41% with significant projected decline and 17.52% with weak projected decline; these areas formed degradation hotspots concentrated in the central and northern Tianshan Mountains. In contrast, potential improvement was limited (strong persistent improvement: 4.97%; strong anti-persistent improvement: 0.36%). Driver attribution indicated that land use dominated NPP variability (mean absolute SHAP value=29.54%), followed by precipitation (16.03%) and temperature (11.05%). SHAP dependence analyses showed that precipitation effects stabilized at 300.00–400.00 mm, and temperature exhibited an inverted U-shaped response with a peak near 0.00°C. These findings indicated that persistent degradation risk arose from hydrothermal constraints interacting with land use conversion, highlighting the need for threshold-informed, spatially targeted management to sustain carbon sequestration in arid mountain ecosystems.
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