太阳质子事件的中短期预报模型研究

Abstract: Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts. According to the short to medium term space mission, the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences are statistically analyzed. It is found that the probability distributions of solar proton event fluences basically satisfy the log-normal distributions, and their expectations and averages are logarithmic functions of the time periods. Based on these, a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton event fluences is built, which can forecast the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences with some given confidence levels for 1 to 365 days. So, this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission with less than 1 year mission period.